Hungarians voted Sunday in referendums on three of Socialist Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany's economic reform measures. The center-right opposition was expected to win, but analysts say the government's stability is not threatened.
Voters in the binding referendum will decide whether to repeal co-payments for doctor's visits and hospital stays, and tuition fees in higher education.
Hungarians will make a straightforward "yes" or "no" decision on each of the three issues. To be valid, the winning votes must have the support at least a quarter of registered voters.
Polls opened at 6 a.m. (0500 GMT) and 46.3 percent of eligible voters had cast ballots by 5:30 p.m (1200 GMT), authorities said.
A turnout rate above 40 percent was predicted by pollsters to result in a likely victory for the "yes" votes and a defeat for the government. There are slightly more than 8 million eligible voters in Hungary.
Police closed off a large area around parliament for three days starting on Sunday morning in an effort to prevent anti-government protests that could turn violent.
Gyurcsany has tried to steer attention away from the vote. He did not mention the referendum in his "State of the Nation" speech in parliament a few weeks ago and instead has announced plans for tax cuts in 2009 and other measures meant to persuade citizens that the worst effects of the government's austerity measures are over.
Hungary has been plagued by the European Union's highest budget deficit for the past few years _ nearly 10 percent of GDP in 2006 and slightly below 6 percent expected this year. Government steps to balance the budget have resulted in higher taxes and massive layoffs in the public sector, as well as high inflation and unemployment and very low growth.
Fidesz, the main opposition party, has tried to turn the vote into a poll on the government's overall record and hopes that a relatively high turnout _ near 40 percent _ will increase pressure on the coalition parties to replace Gyurcsany.
The prime minister's approval rating stands at just 19 percent according to the latest Gallup poll and he has struggled to keep his position since weeks of protests and riots broke out in September 2006 after it was revealed that Gyurcsany lied about the true state of the economy to win the April 2006 elections.
Despite popular discontent with the reforms, especially with the decision to allow for-profit firms to buy stakes in the state-controlled health insurance companies, analysts said Sunday's referendum was too long after the 2006 riots and too soon before the scheduled 2010 parliamentary elections to have a significant impact.
"It's highly unlikely that the referendum will sweep Gyurcsany away," said political analyst Zoltan Kiszelly. "Fidesz will continue to demand his resignation, while Gyurcsany will continue to proclaim a bright future. It's a dialogue between the deaf."
The prime minister and his coalition partners, the Alliance of Free Democrats, said the referendum was an attempt to block Hungary's modernization and a symbolic return to the state-controlled economy of the communist era.
"This vote is about to what degree demagoguery and populism can be victorious in Hungary," said Free Democrat Balint Magyar, a former education minister.
For Fidesz leader and former prime minister Viktor Orban, who has been defeated in the past two parliamentary elections, Sunday's challenge is to turn Fidesz's huge lead in the opinion polls over the Socialists _ 70 percent against 21 percent, according to Gallup _ into actual votes.
"Orban's opposition within Fidesz could strengthen if the referendum shows him unable to attract the undecided voters" and those in the middle of the political spectrum, Kiszelly said.
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